A general principle of statistics says that the larger the sample size, the more reliable the statistic. And a fairly tight window of confidence, based on the huge exposure of 63 million vehicle-years.
Its most recent study covered model year passenger cars and light trucks during the period A look at the statistics. The higher the number of cars in the sample size, the tighter the confidence range.
The Autopilot fatality rate would now be one per 44 million miles—more than double that of non-Autopilot U. Tesla Autopilot driving occurs primarily on limited-access four-lane highways, which are typically safer than other types of roads—particularly on a per-mile basis.
But only when driven on four-lane roads in good weather. Based on that number, critics might well call for Autopilot to be banned immediately in the interests of public safety.
Nevertheless, Bubslug came up with a number for the Autopilot-equipped Tesla—even though, according to him, the AP Tesla had accumulated only 16, vehicle-years. It may not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles.
By the IIHS yardstick, the Autopilot Tesla is more than three times as dangerous as a typical passenger vehicle, even with all the advantages cited above. Confidence range is the range within which there is a percent chance that the number is accurate.
A vehicle-year is a measure of exposure to risk: All of those factors would be expected to give an Autopilot-equipped Tesla a lower fatality rate than other passenger vehicles-even if the Autopilot is turned off. And, just blue-skying here, what if the car that crashed in Florida had been carrying three passengers?
A better yardstick The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety also collects crash and fatality information. Due to the low number of vehicle-years for the Tesla, its confidence range would have been huge—something on the order of 0 to Obviously, the Tesla was not included.
He came up with a rating of 36—a bit worse than the overall average, and about the same as the Impala. Suddenly, the Autopilot Model S number that Tesla was bragging about last June—one death in million miles—looks downright terrible.
The confidence range for the Buick LaCrosse was 7 to 80—a yawning canyon of doubt.Sep 16, · 9 16 AP Stats Linear Transformation effects on center and spread Auto Expressviews.
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